Impacts of Sethu Samudram Project on Sri Lanka

By Ananda-USA

The Sethu Samudram Canal project, advocated by Tamil Nadu, proposes to create a sea channel through the Palk Strait, lying entirely within Indian sea territory, that would enable ships to avoid going around Sri Lanka to ports along the East Coast of India.

In my judgment, the Sethu Samudram canal will be built no matter what objections, if any, that Sri Lanka raises, because it will be built in Indian territory, with Indian funds. Sri Lanka should be looking to proactively cope with the fallout of its construction. The current objections raised by Indians arise mainly from Hindu zealots who wish to preserve the "bridge" built by Hanuman in the Ramayana epic, central to Hinduism, unaltered by human hands. In my view, saner Indian minds driven by economic, military and political factors will ultimately prevail and the Sethu Samudram canal will be built in some form in the future.

This project will have significant Economic, Security, Environmental, and Political implications for Sri Lanka, that Sri Lanka must anticipate and prepare to accommodate effectively.

Economically, this would reduce the need for ships to berth at Sri Lankan ports, and will afford additional porting alternatives to ships crossing the Indian Ocean. That would reduce future income for Sri Lanka. This economic impact would be offset to a very small extent by increased utility of ports on the West coast north of Mannar, the Jaffna peninsula, and the East Coast north of Trincomalee. I think, it would negatively impact any income to be derived from a rapid expansion of the Trincomalee harbour to handle ship repairs and ship construction in the future, as I had proposed in an earlier article at this blog, and elsewhere.

From a Security and Political Perspective, we must anticipate India placing greater emphasis on security of this region, because this channel affords India a method of more rapidly transferring military assets by sea between the East and West Coasts of India. In this regard, we note that in the past, the Sri Lanka Navy was faced with the same problem. The Sri Lanka Navy purchased Hovercraft ships that rode on an air-cushion above the water surface to ferry troops and supplies from Colombo to Jaffna directly across the shallow Palk Strait that could not be navigated by ordinary deep-draft vessels. This would have avoided either shipping the same cargo around Sri Lanka, or transporting that cargo first by land to Trincomalee, and then by ship to Jaffna. The military advantage of such a sea channel to India, with defence concerns on both sides of its land mass is great. As such, the Federal Government of India is likely to back this project very strongly.

The security impact on Sri Lanka of the Sethu Samudram Canal being built, however, is partially conditioned on Tamil Nadu remaining within the Indian orbit. Given the separatist tendencies of Tamil Nadu politicians, and their oft declared Aryan-phobicity, that is by no means certain. Also, these longer-term considerations could explain the consistently persistent support by Tamil Nadu politicians for Eelam in Sri Lanka: They may be anticipating an existence separate from India, and want to permanently secure both ends of this sea channel for their own use by incorporating Eelam as a part of a future Greater Dravidian Nation (GDN). The southern and northern sea coasts of such a GDN independent of the rest of India, will be able to communicate freely along its entire coast only if the Sethu Samudram canal is built.

This also underscores why Sri Lanka must never devolve power to the North and the East on an ethnic basis, because the GDN will rely on the ethnic Tamil leaders of the North and the East to enable them to secure the Sri Lanka end of the Sethu Samudram sea channel. These objectives can be realized only by keeping the Eelam pot boiling in Sri Lanka, even after the current war is ended in Sri Lanka.

Therefore, it is essential that

1. The population of Sri Lanka is homogenized as quickly as possible to eliminate ethnic demographic concentrations that can be exploited by its future enemies,
   
   
2. That Sri Lanka develops a large and permanent defense force, including a strong coastal defense, that is capable of preventing any encroachment and insurgent activity along its shores. This should include a large and highly capable permanent defense force of 500,000, supported by a 4,000,000 man National Guard including every able bodied adult in the country.
   
   
3. Sri Lanka moves rapidly to develop and capture for Trincomalee the premier position as the preferred place in the Indian Ocean for ship repair, shipbuilding, and container shipping. This may require a substantial investment in iron, steel and specialty metals manufacturing, cold storage facilities for perishable commodities, in heavy equipment manufacturing, and fuel storage and refining facilities as well. Sri Lanka should make various incentives available to the international shipping industry, to register their ships under the Sri Lanka flag, just as Panama and Greece did in the past.
   
   
4. Sri Lanka evaluates the development of a deep-water Canal through the Palk Strait lying entirely within Sri Lankan maritime territory to capture a part of the income from the ship traffic through the Palk Strait. If the Indian canal is halted because of Hindu religious opposition in India, Sri Lanka would become the sole provider of access through the Palk Strait. In fact, Sri Lanka should volunteer to replace the Indian project with a Sri Lankan project and get the financing for the project from India, on the condition that this would remain sovereign Sri Lankan asset, and not an International waterway. The advantage of doing this is that, since such a canal would be built anyway with or without Sri Lanka's participation, why not acquire the entire project and derive a stream of income from usage fees in perpetuity? There may be some adverse security implications, in that India may feel the need to seize the canal and land in Sri Lanka to defend it, should some conflict in the future require sole use for India's defence against any other country. If the Sri Lankan canal is in addition to a canal built in Indian territory, that need would be significantly reduced. It is important to appreciate here that both the construction of the canal, and keeping it clear of obstructions due to the movement and deposition of marine sediments by periodic dredging, is a costly, fulltime undertaking, that must be more than offset by the income from usage fees, to provide the necessary financial incentive. As a result, the construction and operation of two canals in Indian and Sri Lankan waters is unlikely to be financially viable, especially if the bulk of the traffic is of Indian origin and chooses to the Indian canal.
   

I have laid out here a partially fleshed out rationale for Tamil Nadu interest in supporting Eelam in Sri Lanka, that goes beyond the well trumpeted support for fellow Sri LankanTamils, and what Sri Lanka can do now to cope with these looming future developments.

Sri Lanka needs to develop a National Policy to anticipate, counter and defuse the Economic, Security and Political impacts of the Sethu Samudram Canal Project as an urgent National Priority.

INDIA-CENTERED PERSPECTIVE OF THE SETHU SAMUDRAM PROJECT
(From Wikipedia.org website )

Sethusamudram Ship Channel Project proposes linking the Palk Bay and the Gulf of Mannar between India and Sri Lanka by creating a shipping channel through the shallow sea sometimes called Setu Samudram, and through the island chain of Adam's Bridge, also known as ram sethu. This would provide a continuous navigable sea route around the Indian Peninsula. The project involves digging a 44.9 nautical mile (83 km) long deepwater channel linking the shallow water of the Palk Strait with the Gulf of Mannar. Conceived as early as 1860 by Alfred Dundas Taylor, it recently received approval of the Indian government. Government of India plans to break limestone shoals called Ram's Bridge or Ram sethu as part of implementation of this project. A few organizations are opposing damage to Ramasethu on religious,environmental and economical grounds. Many of these parties or organizations support implementation of this project using one of the 5 alternative alignments considered earlier without damaging a structure considered sacred by Hindus. Current alignment is planned as Mid-ocean channel which is unprecedented. Other famous shipping canal projects like Suez Canal and Panama Canal projects are land based channels.

History

Due to shallow waters, Sethusamudram presents a formidable hindrance to navigation through the Palk strait. Though trade across the India-Sri Lanka divide has been active since at least the first millennium BCE, it has been limited to small boats and dinghies. Larger ocean going vessels from the West have had to navigate around Sri Lanka to reach India' eastern coast. Eminent British geographer Major James Rennell, who surveyed the region as a young officer in late eighteenth century, suggested that a "navigable passage could be maintained by dredging the strait of Ramisseram". However little notice was given to his proposal, perhaps because it came from "so young and unknown an officer", and the idea was only revived 60 years later. Efforts were made in 1838 to dredge the canal, but did not succeed in keeping the passage navigable for any vessels except those with a shallow draft.

Possibly conceived in 1860 by Commander A. D. Taylor of the Indian Marines, the project has been reviewed many times over the years but no decision was ever made. It was part of the election manifestos of all political parties during elections. The Union Government of India appointed the Sethu Samudram Project Committee in 1955, headed by Dr. A. Ramasamy Mudaliar, which was charged with the duty of examining the desirability of the project. After evaluating the costs and benefits, this committee found the project feasible and viable. However it has strongly recommended land based passage instead of channel cutting through Ram's bridge due to several advantages of land based passage like Shifting sandbanks, Ability to prevent navigational hazards etc. Several reviews of the proposals followed. Finally, the United Progressive Alliance Government of India headed by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh announced the inauguration of the project on July 2, 2005.

Benefits

The strategic advantages to India derive from obtaining a navigable sea route close to the coast, with a reduction in travel distance of more than 350 nautical miles (650 km) (for larger ships). The project is expected to provide a boost to the economic and industrial development of coastal Tamil Nadu. The project will be of particular significance to Tuticorin harbour, which has the potential to transform itself into a nodal port. The State Government has announced its proposal to develop 13 minor ports, including Ennore, Cuddalore, Nagapattinam, Thondi, Valinokam, Kolachel and Kanyakumari.

Development of the canal and ports is also expected to provide increased maritime security for Tamil Nadu.

Other Arguments

Safety, requirement of Constant Dredging, question arising on its suitability for Heavy Ships, time spent due to slow speed that would be necessary for passage in the canal, cost aspects... were some of the arguments put forth by Captain (retired) H Balakrishnan of the Indian Navy has to say about the project in an interview to Shobha Warrier of Rediff: In the case of the Suez and the Panama canals, ships save thousands of nautical miles in sailing distance and hundreds of hours in sailing time.The difference with the Sethu Samudram project is that the ships will probably save a few hundred miles and at the most two hours in sailing time.

Issues To Be Resolved

Economic

Some naval hydrographers and experts suggest that the project is unlikely to be financially viable or serve ships in any significant way. The savings for ships that originate from Kanyakumari or Tuticorin is between 10 and 30 hours. For ships from other destinations like the Middle East, Africa, Mauritius and Europe,the average savings by using this canal is just 8 hours.

At the present tariff rates, ships from Africa and Europe will lose $ 4,992 on every voyage, as the savings in time for these ships are considerably lower that what is calculated in the DPR. This loss is significant as 65% of the projected users of the canal are those from Africa and Europe. If tariffs are lowered to a point where ships from Africa and Europe will not lose any money from using the canal, the IRR of the project falls to 2.6%. This is a level at which even public infrastructure projects are rejected by the government.

Depth envisaged for this canal is designed for ships with weight of 30000 tonnes and less. Most of the new generation ships (with weight more than 60000 tonnes and tankers with weight above 150000 tonnes) cannot make use of this canal.

Cash Crunch For The Project

Axis Bank Ltd. was appointed “loan arranger” for the project in 2005.Since its inception in 2004, costs have skyrocketed to at least Rs 4,000 crore, interest rates have crawled higher and old loan terms have lapsed.Even before the first dredger began its work in 2005, costs had already spiralled to more than Rs 3,500 crore. The loan sanctions, valid only up to Rs 2,400 crore, lapsed. To secure more money, Sethusamudram Corp. Ltd would have to return to the drawing board, draw up new reports, sit with parliamentary committees and receive fresh approval.

Environmental

The Environmental Impact Assessment carried out by the Indian government On July 2, 2005, the Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh unveiled the Sethusamudram Ship Canal Project.The Project would disturb the ecological balance and would be the reason for the death of corals.It is also an important fishing ground for the state of Tamilnadu.There exists an Biological park in the vicinity of the proposed project.

Political And Economic

There have been concerns about the impact of dredging. Nevertheless, the economic benefits will be mutual for Sri Lanka as much as it is for India by reviving minor ports in Sri Lanka. The underdeveloped region of Northern Srilanka is currently occupied by LTTE. Sethu Samudram project could potentially allow economic benefits to this region. This is being viewed with mutual suspicion of both Sri Lankan and Tamil leaders. Further it is expected that in addition to Colombo, new ports to be developed near Jaffna. There has also been criticism expressed, on the basis that the project could damage relations with Sri Lanka.

Religious

This land bridge is the site of the famous Lord Rama's Bridge, making it a historical, religious and cultural monument of great significance. For this reason, many, including chief ministers of states, oppose the project.

While the age of the Ram Setu is disputed it's importance as a religious symbol in the minds of some Hindu's is not. Nevertheless, the Govt. of India through Mr. Nariman submitted before the Supreme Court of India on 22 july 2008 that “Kamba Ramayanam also expressly says the bridge was destroyed by Lord Ram so that no one can cross over to Sri Lanka and ships can sail through. Even the Telugu version of Ramayana says Lord Ram destroyed the bridge.”

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